On August 22, the United States placed 50% tariffs on roughly $27.6 billion of Canadian goods after trade talks broke down. Ottawa answered within days — matching dollar for dollar, with counter-tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. products taking effect September 8.
That is real. Ontario's manufacturing corridor will feel it, some households will feel it in their paycheques, and everyone feels it in their confidence. We are not going to tell you it doesn't matter.
But headlines measure noise. Markets measure behaviour. And the behaviour underneath this market is telling a very different story.
Prices already did their adjusting. The GTA average sits at $1,003,956, down 4.5% from a year ago. Durham Region averaged $834,312 in July. Northumberland County came in around $721,000, and Peterborough's median sold price is $570,000. If you have been waiting for the correction — this is what it looks like when you're standing in the middle of it.
Supply is quietly tightening. New GTA listings fell 17.8% year-over-year in July while sales held nearly flat. Sellers are withdrawing faster than buyers are. That is how floors form.
Demand didn't disappear. It parked. National Bank of Canada estimates roughly 77,000 households of pent-up demand nationally, and CREA now forecasts Ontario as the only province in the country where sales grow in 2026 — led by first-time buyers who have been sidelined for four years. That demand doesn't evaporate over a tariff headline. It waits. Then it moves all at once.
Rates are the calmest part of the story. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% — the low of this cycle — at every decision this year. The next announcement is September 2. Most economists expect a hold, and if the trade war weighs on the economy, the pressure on rates points down, not up. For buyers, the financing math is the most stable it has been in years.
Where we see it going. Trade wars end at negotiating tables, and confidence returns before the headlines say it has. When it does, it will meet the tightest new-listing environment in years and a queue of ready buyers. The households who did their homework during the noise will have first pick and the strongest negotiating position.
You don't need to act. You need to know exactly where you stand. If a move is anywhere in your next 12 months — in Toronto, Durham, Northumberland or Peterborough — a 15-minute conversation now is worth more than six months of watching headlines.
Book a market-strategy call — theharmergroup.ca
Chad Harmer
The Harmer Group | TLR Group · 905.622.0821
Data sources: TRREB Market Watch (July 2026); CREA Quarterly Forecast (July 2026); Central Lakes Association of REALTORS® (July 2026); Bank of Canada; National Bank of Canada Economics; Reuters (August 2026).