If your mortgage‑renewal email made your coffee go cold—join the club. Canada’s renewal wave is here, and it’s reshaping household budgets, housing choices, and retirement timelines across Durham, Clarington, Northumberland, Kawarthas—and right here in Bowmanville, Newcastle, Clarington, Port Hope, Scugog, and Peterborough.
Why this renewal wave matters
- The Bank of Canada estimates about 60% of all outstanding mortgages will renew in 2025–2026. A majority of those renewing will see payment increases (especially five‑year fixed holders). In plain English: a lot of households are facing higher payments at renewal—even after recent rate cuts.
- CMHC pegs the volume at ~1.2 million renewals in 2025 and ~980,000 in 2026—and notes that 85% of fixed‑rate mortgages renewing in 2025 were originated when the policy rate was ≤1%. Translation: many of those loans roll over at higher rates than they started.
- Industry summaries of the Bank’s work suggest roughly 40% of all mortgages will renew into higher rates over the 2025–26 window. That’s a big slice of households planning around bigger payments.
The local effect: more downsizing conversations
When payments jump, families look for room in the budget. Around our communities—from Bowmanville & Newcastleto Port Hope, Scugog & Peterborough—that often means:
- Right‑sizing (a.k.a. downsize without downgrading your life): trading unused square footage for cash‑flow and sleep‑at‑night factor.
- Unlocking equity to reinforce retirement income, shorten amortization, or rebuild reserves.
- Rent‑then‑buy transitions to bridge a market move or an upcoming retirement date.
Downsizing isn’t “giving up.” It’s swapping maintenance and interest for time and freedom. When done inside a real financial plan, it accelerates—not derails—retirement.
The integration advantage: financial plan ⇄ mortgage ⇄ real estate ⇄ retirement
Most advice lives in silos. Ours doesn’t. As Financial Advisors/Retirement Planners (Harmer Wealth) and Mortgage Brokers + Realtors (The Harmer Group), we run one coordinated plan:
- Financial Planning: model cash flow, taxes, and retirement income under multiple rate and price paths (conservative first, then optimize).
- Mortgage Strategy: renewal options (blend‑and‑extend, shorter terms, variable vs. fixed), amortization, prepayment tactics, portability and penalty math.
- Real Estate Moves: sell/buy timing, list‑to‑sold net proceeds, staging, and re‑entry strategy—plus local comps in Clarington, Port Hope, Scugog, Peterborough.
- Investments & Risk: where equity proceeds live (short‑term reserves vs. long‑term returns), plus life/disability protection while you execute the move.
Result: fewer gaps, fewer “oops” costs, and a plan that actually matches your life.
Rates & prices: what we expect
- Rates: The Bank of Canada held the policy rate at 2.75% in July 2025. Inflation cooled to 1.7% in July, keeping cuts on the table if the economy stays soft. Our base case: gradual easing continues as growth moderates.
- Home prices: 2025 looks soft and choppy in Ontario (inventory is doing most of the talking). Several forecasters see firmer footing in 2026, with CREA projecting a ~3% national price increase in 2026 and TD expecting stronger sales and prices next year. Note: RBC still flags downside for ON/BC into early 2026—so local market selection matters. Our view: soft through late 2025, then gradual improvement in 2026.
(Forecasts change; we keep your plan updated as the data moves.)
Renewing in the next 12 months? Quick checklist
12–9 months out
- Pull your amortization, renewal date, and penalty details.
- Run a stress‑tested budget at +1%–2% over quoted rates.
6–4 months out
- Shop term strategy (shorter fixed vs. variable vs. 5‑year fixed) based on your move/retirement window.
- Compare blend‑and‑extend vs. switch math (including penalties).
90–30 days out
- Lock when rate‑volatility + life timing line up; don’t chase the last 5 bps if it risks the closing.
- If downsizing, align list date, bridge/port options, and closing funds so money lands exactly when needed.
Anytime
- If cash flow’s tight, prioritize high‑yield debt payoff and keep a 3–6 month reserve before investing new dollars.
Who we help (locally)
- Financial Advisor / Retirement Planner – Bowmanville, Newcastle, Clarington
- Mortgage Broker – Port Hope, Scugog, Peterborough (and surrounding areas)
- Real Estate Agent / Realtor – Clarington, Port Hope, Peterborough, Scugog, Newcastle & Bowmanville
Whether you’re renewing, rightsizing, or retiring, the plan comes first—then the mortgage and the move follow the plan.
FAQs (for homeowners around Clarington, Northumberland & the Kawarthas)
Q: Should I go variable or a shorter fixed at renewal?
A: If you expect a move or downsizing in the next 2–3 years, a 2–3 year fixed or variable can preserve flexibility and penalty control. If you’re staying put and value certainty over every dollar of interest, a longer fixed can make sense—but check the IRD penalty math before you commit.
Q: Does downsizing set my retirement back?
Often the opposite. Reducing housing costs and redeploying equity can increase retirement sustainability and reduce sequence‑of‑returns risk. The key is coordinating tax, investment, and real‑estate timing in one model.
Q: Can I port my mortgage if I sell and buy?
Sometimes. Porting rules are lender‑specific, rate‑specific, and time‑boxed. We’ll compare port, blend, and new‑moneyoptions against penalties and closing dates.
Q: What if rates drop after I lock?
Many lenders offer rate‑drop policies before funding. We track that window for you and adjust if markets move.
Q: How do you charge?
We’re transparent. Financial planning is engagement‑based; mortgage compensation is typically lender‑paid (we disclose details); real estate fees are agreed up front. One team, one plan.
Book a complimentary consultation
If your renewal is inside 12 months—or downsizing has been on the whiteboard—let’s map it. We’ll connect financial planning with mortgage strategy and real estate execution so your next move actually serves your life.
Book your complimentary consult today to discuss your scenario with our integrated team at Harmer Wealth Management and The Harmer Group.
