Durham Region is a balanced-to-buyer's market heading into 2027. Prices are roughly 5 percent below a year ago, sales are down more than 25 percent year over year, and listings are taking about a month to sell. Absent a rate shock, expect flat to modestly lower prices through spring, with well-priced homes still selling near list.
That is the short version. The longer version is that Durham has split into two markets, and which one you are in depends on price point and town.
Key metrics: Durham Region, September 2026
Metric | September 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
Average sale price | $829,993 | Up 0.8 percent from August; down 5.5 percent from September 2025 ($877,963) |
Home sales | 525 | Down 7.6 percent from August; down about 26 percent from September 2025 (707) |
New listings | 1,840 | Down from 2,082 in September 2025, but still well ahead of sales |
Average days on market | About 31 | Roughly flat month over month |
Sale-to-list ratio | 98 percent | Sellers are getting close to asking when priced correctly |
Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.25 percent | Unchanged since October 2025; October 28 decision pending |
GTA average sale price | $1,006,409 | Down 5.1 percent year over year |
Sources: CLAR September 2026 release
What is driving the market
- Rates have stopped falling. The Bank of Canada cut to 2.25 percent in October 2025 and has held at every meeting since. Fixed mortgage rates have settled rather than dropped, so the affordability improvement buyers were waiting for has largely arrived and been absorbed.
- Inventory is ahead of demand. Roughly three and a half new listings for every sale in September means buyers have choice and time. That keeps a lid on prices even where demand is steady.
- Sellers are adjusting slowly. The 98 percent sale-to-list ratio hides a lot of relistings and price reductions. Homes priced to 2024 expectations sit; homes priced to today's comparables sell in weeks.
- Durham still has a price advantage. At roughly $830,000 against a GTA average above $1,000,000, the region continues to pull buyers east from Toronto, York and Peel, particularly into Clarington and Oshawa.
- Employment is the wildcard. Durham's economy is tied to automotive, energy and public-sector employment. Any shift at the GM Oshawa plant or in nuclear refurbishment timelines shows up in the housing market within a few months.
Town by town
Area | Average price, September 2026 | What stands out |
|---|---|---|
Oshawa | About $680,000 | Lowest entry point in the region; most active first-time buyer market |
Whitby and Ajax | About $830,000 to $895,000 | Family market; prices softer than a year ago but inventory moving |
Pickering | About $880,000 | Closest to Toronto; most sensitive to GTA pricing |
Clarington | About $780,000 | Bowmanville, Newcastle and Courtice drawing move-up buyers for value |
Scugog, Uxbridge and Brock | Wide range | Rural and estate properties; slower, less rate-sensitive, more negotiable |
What this means for buyers
You have leverage you did not have in 2021 or 2022. Use it for conditions, not just price: financing and inspection conditions are being accepted again, and that protection is worth more than a further $10,000 off. Get pre-approved at today's rates, since a rate hold means the posted rate you qualify at is unlikely to improve meaningfully before you close.
What this means for sellers
The single biggest predictor of a sale is the list price relative to the last 60 days of comparable sales, not the last 12 months. Homes that launch at the right number still attract multiple showings in the first two weeks. Homes that launch high and reduce later typically sell for less than they would have at the correct starting price, because days on market becomes its own signal.
The forecast for the next 12 months
Base case: prices flat to down 2 to 4 percent through spring 2027, then stabilizing as inventory clears. Sales volume recovers before prices do. The upside case requires a rate cut and a return of investor demand, neither of which is in the data yet. The downside case is a rise in unemployment that pushes more listings into an already well-supplied market. The East GTA remains better positioned than the core, because its price point is where demand is deepest.
Frequently asked questions
Are Durham Region home prices going down? Year over year, yes, by about 5 percent as of September 2026. Month to month the market has been close to flat since summer.
Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Durham Region? Balanced leaning toward buyers. Listings are outpacing sales and homes are taking about a month to sell, but correctly priced homes still move near asking.
Is now a good time to buy in Oshawa or Clarington? For buyers who plan to hold five years or more and can qualify at current rates, the combination of choice, negotiating room and Durham's price advantage over the GTA is favourable.
This article is general information, not personal advice. Market statistics are updated monthly; figures cited are as of the date of writing.